US Economy Likely Growing at Slow Pace in H2 2011

The Globicus-qEcon Research overall leading economic index’ growth rate increased modestly for the first time in four months in June, signaling US economic growth will likely continue but at a slow pace in the second half of 2011. The overall LEI’s growth rate, a measure of future economic growth, edged up to 2.8 in June from 2.7 in May. The long leading index’ growth rate increased to 4.8 in June from 4.3 in May, while the short leading index’ growth rate declined to 1.5 from May’s 1.6. Meanwhile, the coincident index’ growth rate, a measure of current economic growth, inched up to 1.4 in May from 1.2 in April. The risk for a double-dip recession is not high; nevertheless, political squabbles in Congress and global debt problems may hurt the already slowing US economy and possibly push it into a new recession.